Simple prepregnant prediction rule for recurrent

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Re : Simple prepregnant prediction rule for recurrent

Postby rosalinda » Wed Aug 12, 2009 12:20 am

Hey Jules, here are the numbers I could find, I hope they work: HDL 50 mg/dL, 24 hour urine 140 mg/TV (TV 2330), Creatinine 0.81 mg/dL.
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Re : Simple prepregnant prediction rule for recurrent

Postby missgamecock » Wed Aug 12, 2009 10:14 pm

Uggh, I am not even going to try. I know what my risk is. :( Would be interesting to see if I fit the model though of those who have recurrence.
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Re : Simple prepregnant prediction rule for recurrent

Postby jules2 » Thu Aug 13, 2009 09:45 am

Hi Rosalinda,

I've got confused by your units, because I am in the UK and this paper is also European, so does not use the same US units that you are giving me.

I know how to convert the HDL from mg/dL to mmol/l, that one is easy. But I've tried converting your P/C ratio and I'm not sure I've done it right, as I don't get a sensible answer. It wants the P/C ratio in mg/mmol i.e. total protein in mg and creatinine in mmol/l. My ratio is 7. I don't know what TV is either so that has confused me re: conversion to these units. Can you clarify and I'll have another try? Or is there a chemist around?

Thanks

Jules

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Re : Simple prepregnant prediction rule for recurrent

Postby rosalinda » Thu Aug 13, 2009 01:04 pm

Hey Jules,

thanks bunches for trying to figure this out for me....if it doesn't work don't worry about it too much. TV stands for total volume of urine collected, there is another result protein/creatinine urine 0.15 mg/mg..........does this help at all?
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Re : Simple prepregnant prediction rule for recurrent

Postby jules2 » Fri Aug 14, 2009 04:44 am

Hi Rosalinda, I've got 5.6% for you now, but don't quote me on that or hold me to it :-)

Also, these researchers didn't even try putting BP into their model. I am quite comfortable with a 2.9% risk of early recurrence, but can't believe it when that ignores my BP! I also can't quite work out why they did not include BP as a predictor, as 23% of these women had chronic HTN. I might email and ask them why not - just seems really odd!
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Re : Simple prepregnant prediction rule for recurrent

Postby rosalinda » Fri Aug 14, 2009 11:32 am

Hey Jules, thanks for all your help. 5.6% isn't too bad, theoretically.
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Re : Simple prepregnant prediction rule for recurrent

Postby jules2 » Mon Sep 07, 2009 07:04 am

Just thought I'd reply again, as the authors have now responded to my email and tried to explain
why BP fell out of the model (as well as BMI, age, and other risk factors etc).

Most interestingly they state that in their cohort - 25% of women with pe in first pregnancy have a recurrence, but early recurrence is only 7% in their data (they are about to publish further). This seems roughly consistently with other papers I have read, and is fairly reassuring, particularly as most women do get further the 2nd time.
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